Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kluczbork vs Raków Częstochowa II — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Kluczbork
Kluczbork
FT
3 – 0
Raków Częstochowa II
Raków Częstochowa II
11/10/2023III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 16Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Kluczbork47%
×Draw23%
Raków Częstochowa II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kluczbork
1.83
Raków Częstochowa II
1.45

Kluczbork creates 26% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 34 away

creates per match

Kluczbork
1.95
Raków Częstochowa II
1.53

allows per match

Kluczbork
1.36
Raków Częstochowa II
1.71

finishing

Kluczbork+0.00on par
Raków Częstochowa II+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kluczbork ↓

Raków Częstochowa II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Kluczbork or draw
69%
Kluczbork or Raków Częstochowa II
77%
Draw or Raków Częstochowa II
53%

Winning margin

Kluczbork wins by 2+
25%
Raków Częstochowa II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Kluczbork 1+ goals
84%
Kluczbork 2+ goals
54%
Kluczbork 3+ goals
28%
Raków Częstochowa II 1+ goals
77%
Raków Częstochowa II 2+ goals
42%
Raków Częstochowa II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Kluczbork (draw refunded)
60%
Raków Częstochowa II (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kluczbork at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.36 · 103 matches

Raków Częstochowa II away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.71 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kluczbork attack 1.95 + Raków Częstochowa II defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.83

Raków Częstochowa II attack 1.53 + Kluczbork defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kluczbork scores more
47%
level
23%
Raków Częstochowa II scores more
31%

Kluczbork at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Kluczbork will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kluczbork vs Raków Częstochowa II

Kluczbork beat Raków Częstochowa II 3-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on November 10, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Kluczbork.