Kluczbork 2–1 Polonia-Stal Świdnica: Result & Stats

Kluczbork

FT

2 – 1

Polonia-Stal Świdnica

3/20/2021

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 22Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Kluczbork63%

×Draw18%

Polonia-Stal Świdnica19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KluczborkExpected goals in this matchPolonia-Stal Świdnica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.53

1.32

Kluczbork

2.53

Polonia-Stal Świdnica

1.32

Kluczbork creates 92% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 18 away

1.95

creates per match

1.28

1.36

allows per match

3.11

creates per match

Kluczbork

1.95

Polonia-Stal Świdnica

1.28

allows per match

Kluczbork

1.36

Polonia-Stal Świdnica

3.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kluczbork+0.00on par

Polonia-Stal Świdnica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kluczbork ↓

Polonia-Stal Świdnica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Kluczbork or draw

81%

Kluczbork or Polonia-Stal Świdnica

82%

Draw or Polonia-Stal Świdnica

37%

Winning margin

Kluczbork wins by 2+

42%

Polonia-Stal Świdnica wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Kluczbork 1+ goals

92%

Kluczbork 2+ goals

71%

Kluczbork 3+ goals

46%

Polonia-Stal Świdnica 1+ goals

73%

Polonia-Stal Świdnica 2+ goals

38%

Polonia-Stal Świdnica 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Kluczbork (draw refunded)

77%

Polonia-Stal Świdnica (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kluczbork at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.36 · 103 matches

Polonia-Stal Świdnica away — creates 1.28, concedes 3.11 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kluczbork attack 1.95 + Polonia-Stal Świdnica defence 3.11 → ÷2 → 2.53

Polonia-Stal Świdnica attack 1.28 + Kluczbork defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Kluczbork scores more

63%

level

18%

Polonia-Stal Świdnica scores more

19%

Kluczbork at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Kluczbork will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff