Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kluczbork vs Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Kluczbork
Kluczbork
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
D. Lewandowski 30'
M. Bak 56'
K. Bedzieszak 41'
10/15/2022III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 12Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Kluczbork50%
×Draw22%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kluczbork
1.90
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.38

Kluczbork creates 38% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 69 away

creates per match

Kluczbork
1.95
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.39

allows per match

Kluczbork
1.36
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.84

finishing

Kluczbork+0.00on par
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kluczbork ↓

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Kluczbork or draw
72%
Kluczbork or Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
78%
Draw or Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
50%

Winning margin

Kluczbork wins by 2+
28%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Kluczbork 1+ goals
85%
Kluczbork 2+ goals
56%
Kluczbork 3+ goals
29%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 1+ goals
75%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 2+ goals
40%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Kluczbork (draw refunded)
64%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kluczbork at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.36 · 103 matches

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.84 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kluczbork attack 1.95 + Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.90

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry attack 1.39 + Kluczbork defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Kluczbork scores more
50%
level
22%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry scores more
28%

Kluczbork at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Kluczbork will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'
D. Lewandowski
41'
K. Bedzieszak
56'
M. Bak

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Kluczbork 1–2 Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry beat Kluczbork 2-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on October 15, 2022.

Goals: D. Lewandowski (30'), K. Bedzieszak (41'), M. Bak (56').

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Kluczbork.