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Kluczbork vs Gać Oława — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Kluczbork
Kluczbork
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Gać Oława
Gać Oława
5/14/2022III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 29Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Kluczbork61%
×Draw20%
Gać Oława19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kluczbork
2.26
Gać Oława
1.18

Kluczbork creates 92% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 35 away

creates per match

Kluczbork
1.95
Gać Oława
1.00

allows per match

Kluczbork
1.36
Gać Oława
2.57

finishing

Kluczbork+0.00on par
Gać Oława+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kluczbork ↓

Gać Oława →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Kluczbork or draw
81%
Kluczbork or Gać Oława
80%
Draw or Gać Oława
39%

Winning margin

Kluczbork wins by 2+
39%
Gać Oława wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Kluczbork 1+ goals
89%
Kluczbork 2+ goals
66%
Kluczbork 3+ goals
39%
Gać Oława 1+ goals
69%
Gać Oława 2+ goals
33%
Gać Oława 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Kluczbork (draw refunded)
76%
Gać Oława (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kluczbork at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.36 · 103 matches

Gać Oława away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.57 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kluczbork attack 1.95 + Gać Oława defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.26

Gać Oława attack 1.00 + Kluczbork defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Kluczbork scores more
61%
level
20%
Gać Oława scores more
19%

Kluczbork at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Kluczbork will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Kluczbork 5–0 Gać Oława

Kluczbork beat Gać Oława 5-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on May 14, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Kluczbork.