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Kluczbork vs Chrobry Głogów II — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Kluczbork
Kluczbork
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Chrobry Głogów II
Chrobry Głogów II
D. Bledowski 69'
T. Wojciechowski 37'
10/29/2022III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 14Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Kluczbork50%
×Draw24%
Chrobry Głogów II26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kluczbork
1.71
Chrobry Głogów II
1.18

Kluczbork creates 45% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 17 away

creates per match

Kluczbork
1.95
Chrobry Głogów II
1.00

allows per match

Kluczbork
1.36
Chrobry Głogów II
1.47

finishing

Kluczbork+0.00on par
Chrobry Głogów II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kluczbork ↓

Chrobry Głogów II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Kluczbork or draw
74%
Kluczbork or Chrobry Głogów II
76%
Draw or Chrobry Głogów II
50%

Winning margin

Kluczbork wins by 2+
27%
Chrobry Głogów II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Kluczbork 1+ goals
82%
Kluczbork 2+ goals
51%
Kluczbork 3+ goals
24%
Chrobry Głogów II 1+ goals
69%
Chrobry Głogów II 2+ goals
33%
Chrobry Głogów II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Kluczbork (draw refunded)
65%
Chrobry Głogów II (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kluczbork at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.36 · 103 matches

Chrobry Głogów II away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kluczbork attack 1.95 + Chrobry Głogów II defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.71

Chrobry Głogów II attack 1.00 + Kluczbork defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Kluczbork scores more
50%
level
24%
Chrobry Głogów II scores more
26%

Kluczbork at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Kluczbork will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'
T. Wojciechowski
69'
D. Bledowski

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Kluczbork 1–1 Chrobry Głogów II

Kluczbork and Chrobry Głogów II drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on October 29, 2022.

Goals: T. Wojciechowski (37'), D. Bledowski (69').

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Kluczbork.