Klubi-04 5–3 OLS: Result & Stats | Ykkönen

Klubi-04

FT

5 – 3

HT: 2 – 2

OLS

V. Vuorinen 90+3'

K. Hardén 66'

T. Mero 58', 6'

N. Svensson 36'

D. Heikkinen 69' (pen), 17'

E. Merikanto 4'

9/29/2024

Ykkönen · Promotion Group - 3Bolt Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Klubi-0448%

×Draw22%

OLS29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Klubi-04Expected goals in this matchOLS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.42

Klubi-04

1.89

OLS

1.42

Klubi-04 creates 33% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 35 away

2.24

creates per match

1.60

1.24

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Klubi-04

2.24

OLS

1.60

allows per match

Klubi-04

1.24

OLS

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Klubi-04+0.00on par

OLS+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Klubi-04 ↓

OLS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Klubi-04 or draw

71%

Klubi-04 or OLS

78%

Draw or OLS

52%

Winning margin

Klubi-04 wins by 2+

27%

OLS wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Klubi-04 1+ goals

85%

Klubi-04 2+ goals

56%

Klubi-04 3+ goals

29%

OLS 1+ goals

76%

OLS 2+ goals

41%

OLS 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Klubi-04 (draw refunded)

63%

OLS (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Klubi-04 at home — creates 2.24, concedes 1.24 · 29 matches

OLS away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.54 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Klubi-04 attack 2.24 + OLS defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.89

OLS attack 1.60 + Klubi-04 defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Klubi-04 scores more

48%

level

22%

OLS scores more

29%

Klubi-04 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Klubi-04 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

6'

17'

36'

45+1'

55'

58'

61'

R. Kähkönen← O. Suutari

61'

R. Salo← E. Merikanto

65'

V. Vuorinen← R. Hudd

66'

K. Hardén

69'

D. HeikkinenPenalty

74'

K. Simojoki

80'

O. Hannula← N. Kujasalo

80'

E. Vauhkonen← T. Mero

83'

A. Räisänen← V. Saarikoski

83'

S. Seppänen← D. Heikkinen

90+2'

P. Mentu

90+3'

V. Vuorinen

Klubi-04

OLS

23

Pentti

44

Saarela

32

Nurmela

45

▼

Saarikosk

17

⚽2

▼

Heikkinen

6

Peltola

51

Paananen

38

⚽

▼

Merikanto

47

Raittinen

7

▼

16

78

96

98

62

⚽

Svensson

61

Simojoki

75

▼

Kujasalo

64

Ritari

54

Mentu

95

▼

Hudd

51

⚽

Hardén

97

⚽2

▼

Mero

Manager: A. Lalli

65'▲V. Vuorinen←▼R. Hudd

80'▲O. Hannula←▼N. Kujasalo

80'▲E. Vauhkonen←▼T. Mero

Klubi-04 substitutes

91Vuorinen49Hannula87Vauhkonen53Kari72Berisha74Hyvönen79Tynkkynen

Manager: M. Mannila

61'▲R. Kähkönen←▼O. Suutari

61'▲R. Salo←▼E. Merikanto

83'▲A. Räisänen←▼V. Saarikoski

83'▲S. Seppänen←▼D. Heikkinen

OLS substitutes

36Kähkönen21Salo53Räisänen41Seppänen59Sillanpää60Säily

Ykkönen: Klubi-04 5–3 OLS

Klubi-04 beat OLS 5-3 in Ykkönen on September 29, 2024.

Goals: E. Merikanto (4'), T. Mero (6', 58'), D. Heikkinen (17', 69' pen), N. Svensson (36'), K. Hardén (66'), V. Vuorinen (90+3').

The match was played at Bolt Arena in Helsinki.

Klubi-04 vs OLS — Ykkönen 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Ykkönen: Klubi-04 5–3 OLS