Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Klubi-04 vs KPV Kokkola — Ykkönen 2018

Klubi-04
Klubi-04
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
KPV Kokkola
KPV Kokkola
8/5/2018YkkönenYkkönen · Round 9Telia 5G -areena (Helsinki)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Klubi-0447%
×Draw24%
KPV Kokkola29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Klubi-04
1.73
KPV Kokkola
1.30

Klubi-04 creates 33% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 13 away

creates per match

Klubi-04
2.00
KPV Kokkola
1.15

allows per match

Klubi-04
1.45
KPV Kokkola
1.46

finishing

Klubi-04+0.00on par
KPV Kokkola+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Klubi-04 ↓

KPV Kokkola →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Klubi-04 or draw
71%
Klubi-04 or KPV Kokkola
76%
Draw or KPV Kokkola
53%

Winning margin

Klubi-04 wins by 2+
25%
KPV Kokkola wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Klubi-04 1+ goals
82%
Klubi-04 2+ goals
52%
Klubi-04 3+ goals
25%
KPV Kokkola 1+ goals
73%
KPV Kokkola 2+ goals
37%
KPV Kokkola 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Klubi-04 (draw refunded)
62%
KPV Kokkola (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Klubi-04 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.45 · 40 matches

KPV Kokkola away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Klubi-04 attack 2.00 + KPV Kokkola defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.73

KPV Kokkola attack 1.15 + Klubi-04 defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Klubi-04 scores more
47%
level
24%
KPV Kokkola scores more
29%

Klubi-04 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Klubi-04 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Klubi-04 vs KPV Kokkola

Klubi-04 and KPV Kokkola drew 1-1 in Ykkönen on August 5, 2018.

The match was played at Telia 5G -areena (Helsinki).