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Klubi-04 vs HIFK Helsinki — Ykkönen 2018

Klubi-04
Klubi-04
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
HIFK Helsinki
HIFK Helsinki
8/23/2018YkkönenYkkönen · Round 10Telia 5G -areena (Helsinki)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Klubi-0442%
×Draw24%
HIFK Helsinki34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Klubi-04
1.65
HIFK Helsinki
1.46

Klubi-04 creates 13% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 27 away

creates per match

Klubi-04
2.00
HIFK Helsinki
1.48

allows per match

Klubi-04
1.45
HIFK Helsinki
1.30

finishing

Klubi-04+0.00on par
HIFK Helsinki+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Klubi-04 ↓

HIFK Helsinki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Klubi-04 or draw
66%
Klubi-04 or HIFK Helsinki
76%
Draw or HIFK Helsinki
58%

Winning margin

Klubi-04 wins by 2+
22%
HIFK Helsinki wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Klubi-04 1+ goals
81%
Klubi-04 2+ goals
49%
Klubi-04 3+ goals
23%
HIFK Helsinki 1+ goals
77%
HIFK Helsinki 2+ goals
43%
HIFK Helsinki 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Klubi-04 (draw refunded)
55%
HIFK Helsinki (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Klubi-04 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.45 · 40 matches

HIFK Helsinki away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.30 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Klubi-04 attack 2.00 + HIFK Helsinki defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.65

HIFK Helsinki attack 1.48 + Klubi-04 defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Klubi-04 scores more
42%
level
24%
HIFK Helsinki scores more
34%

Klubi-04 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Klubi-04 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ykkönen: Klubi-04 1–3 HIFK Helsinki

HIFK Helsinki beat Klubi-04 3-1 in Ykkönen on August 23, 2018.

The match was played at Telia 5G -areena (Helsinki).