Klubi-04 4–4 FC jazz: Result & Stats

Klubi-04

FT

4 – 4

HT: 1 – 3

FC jazz

A. Aaltonen 85'

Ricardo Cardoso 67'

J. Jalonen 62'

G. Kovaqi 27'

Layon 59', 3'

A. Ikonen 45'

M. Faber 14'

9/4/2022

Kakkonen - Lohko B · Group B - 14Bolt Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Klubi-0455%

×Draw20%

FC jazz25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Klubi-04Expected goals in this matchFC jazz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.32

1.52

Klubi-04

2.32

FC jazz

1.52

Klubi-04 creates 53% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 65 away

2.76

creates per match

1.80

1.24

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Klubi-04

2.76

FC jazz

1.80

allows per match

Klubi-04

1.24

FC jazz

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Klubi-04+0.00on par

FC jazz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Klubi-04 ↓

FC jazz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Klubi-04 or draw

75%

Klubi-04 or FC jazz

80%

Draw or FC jazz

45%

Winning margin

Klubi-04 wins by 2+

34%

FC jazz wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Klubi-04 1+ goals

90%

Klubi-04 2+ goals

67%

Klubi-04 3+ goals

40%

FC jazz 1+ goals

78%

FC jazz 2+ goals

45%

FC jazz 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Klubi-04 (draw refunded)

69%

FC jazz (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Klubi-04 at home — creates 2.76, concedes 1.24 · 21 matches

FC jazz away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.88 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Klubi-04 attack 2.76 + FC jazz defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.32

FC jazz attack 1.80 + Klubi-04 defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Klubi-04 scores more

55%

level

20%

FC jazz scores more

25%

Klubi-04 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Klubi-04 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

14'

27'

45'

59'

62'

Ricardo Cardoso← D. Ezeh

62'

A. Hellemaa← A. Toivonen

62'

J. Jalonen

64'

A. Lotjonen

67'

Ricardo Cardoso

72'

I. Söderlund← R. Laaksonen

74'

A. Aaltonen← L. Möller

85'

A. Aaltonen

86'

K. Hardén← D. Rökman

86'

B. Dahlström← M. Ylitolva

86'

R. Jokinen← Layon

Klubi-04

FC

1

6

7

14

4

⚽

Faber

10

⚽

Ikonen

9

⚽2

▼

Layon

15

Hietala

8

Rijssel

17

▼

Laaksonen

18

Pitkälä

78

Ramula

48

⚽

Kovaqi

46

Pettersso

63

▼

Ylitolva

67

▼

Rökman

54

⚽

Jalonen

59

▼

Möller

75

Häggström

52

▼

Toivonen

57

Kujasalo

73

▼

Ezeh

Manager: M. Nuutinen

62'▲Ricardo Cardoso←▼D. Ezeh

62'▲A. Hellemaa←▼A. Toivonen

74'▲A. Aaltonen←▼L. Möller

86'▲K. Hardén←▼D. Rökman

86'▲B. Dahlström←▼M. Ylitolva

Klubi-04 substitutes

47Cardoso49Hellemaa65Aaltonen51Hardén74Dahlström68Bhandari45Bağcı

Manager: J. Uotinen

72'▲I. Söderlund←▼R. Laaksonen

86'▲R. Jokinen←▼Layon

FC jazz substitutes

11Söderlund3Jokinen19Visavuori21Rantanen23Kontio12Lakkamäki