Kloetinge 1–0 SteDoCo: Result & Stats

Kloetinge

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

SteDoCo

2/8/2025

Derde Divisie - Sunday · Group B - 22Sportpark Wesselopark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Kloetinge48%

×Draw24%

SteDoCo28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KloetingeExpected goals in this matchSteDoCo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.29

Kloetinge

1.75

SteDoCo

1.29

Kloetinge creates 36% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 51 away

1.92

creates per match

1.49

1.10

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Kloetinge

1.92

SteDoCo

1.49

allows per match

Kloetinge

1.10

SteDoCo

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kloetinge+0.00on par

SteDoCo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kloetinge ↓

SteDoCo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Kloetinge or draw

72%

Kloetinge or SteDoCo

76%

Draw or SteDoCo

52%

Winning margin

Kloetinge wins by 2+

26%

SteDoCo wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Kloetinge 1+ goals

83%

Kloetinge 2+ goals

52%

Kloetinge 3+ goals

25%

SteDoCo 1+ goals

72%

SteDoCo 2+ goals

37%

SteDoCo 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Kloetinge (draw refunded)

63%

SteDoCo (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kloetinge at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.10 · 51 matches

SteDoCo away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.57 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kloetinge attack 1.92 + SteDoCo defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.75

SteDoCo attack 1.49 + Kloetinge defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kloetinge scores more

48%

level

24%

SteDoCo scores more

28%

Kloetinge at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Kloetinge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff