Kloetinge 4–1 Smitshoek: Result & Stats

Kloetinge

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Smitshoek

12/14/2024

Derde Divisie - Sunday · Group B - 17Sportpark Wesselopark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Kloetinge60%

×Draw19%

Smitshoek21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KloetingeExpected goals in this matchSmitshoek

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.49

1.43

Kloetinge

2.49

Smitshoek

1.43

Kloetinge creates 74% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

1.92

creates per match

1.76

1.10

allows per match

3.06

creates per match

Kloetinge

1.92

Smitshoek

1.76

allows per match

Kloetinge

1.10

Smitshoek

3.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kloetinge+0.00on par

Smitshoek+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kloetinge ↓

Smitshoek →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

54%46%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Kloetinge or draw

79%

Kloetinge or Smitshoek

81%

Draw or Smitshoek

40%

Winning margin

Kloetinge wins by 2+

39%

Smitshoek wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Kloetinge 1+ goals

92%

Kloetinge 2+ goals

71%

Kloetinge 3+ goals

45%

Smitshoek 1+ goals

76%

Smitshoek 2+ goals

42%

Smitshoek 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Kloetinge (draw refunded)

74%

Smitshoek (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kloetinge at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.10 · 51 matches

Smitshoek away — creates 1.76, concedes 3.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kloetinge attack 1.92 + Smitshoek defence 3.06 → ÷2 → 2.49

Smitshoek attack 1.76 + Kloetinge defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Kloetinge scores more

60%

level

19%

Smitshoek scores more

21%

Kloetinge at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Kloetinge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff