Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kloetinge vs HV & CV Quick — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

Kloetinge
Kloetinge
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
HV & CV Quick
HV & CV Quick
11/25/2023Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Girone B - 14Sportpark Wesselopark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Kloetinge57%
×Draw21%
HV & CV Quick21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kloetinge
2.02
HV & CV Quick
1.16

Kloetinge creates 74% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 82 away

creates per match

Kloetinge
1.92
HV & CV Quick
1.22

allows per match

Kloetinge
1.10
HV & CV Quick
2.13

finishing

Kloetinge+0.00on par
HV & CV Quick+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kloetinge ↓

HV & CV Quick →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Kloetinge or draw
79%
Kloetinge or HV & CV Quick
79%
Draw or HV & CV Quick
43%

Winning margin

Kloetinge wins by 2+
34%
HV & CV Quick wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Kloetinge 1+ goals
87%
Kloetinge 2+ goals
60%
Kloetinge 3+ goals
33%
HV & CV Quick 1+ goals
69%
HV & CV Quick 2+ goals
32%
HV & CV Quick 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Kloetinge (draw refunded)
73%
HV & CV Quick (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kloetinge at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.10 · 51 matches

HV & CV Quick away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.13 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kloetinge attack 1.92 + HV & CV Quick defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.02

HV & CV Quick attack 1.22 + Kloetinge defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Kloetinge scores more
57%
level
21%
HV & CV Quick scores more
21%

Kloetinge at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Kloetinge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kloetinge vs HV & CV Quick

Kloetinge beat HV & CV Quick 3-1 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark Wesselopark in Kloetinge.