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Kloetinge vs GVV Unitas — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

Kloetinge
Kloetinge
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
GVV Unitas
GVV Unitas
2/24/2024Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Girone B - 23Sportpark Wesselopark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Kloetinge56%
×Draw22%
GVV Unitas22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kloetinge
1.99
GVV Unitas
1.16

Kloetinge creates 72% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 54 away

creates per match

Kloetinge
1.92
GVV Unitas
1.22

allows per match

Kloetinge
1.10
GVV Unitas
2.06

finishing

Kloetinge+0.00on par
GVV Unitas+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kloetinge ↓

GVV Unitas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Kloetinge or draw
78%
Kloetinge or GVV Unitas
78%
Draw or GVV Unitas
44%

Winning margin

Kloetinge wins by 2+
33%
GVV Unitas wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Kloetinge 1+ goals
86%
Kloetinge 2+ goals
59%
Kloetinge 3+ goals
32%
GVV Unitas 1+ goals
69%
GVV Unitas 2+ goals
32%
GVV Unitas 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Kloetinge (draw refunded)
72%
GVV Unitas (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kloetinge at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.10 · 51 matches

GVV Unitas away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.06 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kloetinge attack 1.92 + GVV Unitas defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.99

GVV Unitas attack 1.22 + Kloetinge defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Kloetinge scores more
56%
level
22%
GVV Unitas scores more
22%

Kloetinge at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Kloetinge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Sunday: Kloetinge 2–1 GVV Unitas

Kloetinge beat GVV Unitas 2-1 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Wesselopark in Kloetinge.