Kloetinge 1–1 Groene Ster: Result & Stats

Kloetinge

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Groene Ster

9/30/2023

Derde Divisie - Sunday · Girone B - 7Sportpark Wesselopark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Kloetinge57%

×Draw22%

Groene Ster20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KloetingeExpected goals in this matchGroene Ster

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.02

Kloetinge

1.88

Groene Ster

1.02

Kloetinge creates 84% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 81 away

1.92

creates per match

0.94

1.10

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Kloetinge

1.92

Groene Ster

0.94

allows per match

Kloetinge

1.10

Groene Ster

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kloetinge+0.00on par

Groene Ster+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kloetinge ↓

Groene Ster →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Kloetinge or draw

80%

Kloetinge or Groene Ster

78%

Draw or Groene Ster

43%

Winning margin

Kloetinge wins by 2+

33%

Groene Ster wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Kloetinge 1+ goals

85%

Kloetinge 2+ goals

56%

Kloetinge 3+ goals

29%

Groene Ster 1+ goals

64%

Groene Ster 2+ goals

27%

Groene Ster 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Kloetinge (draw refunded)

74%

Groene Ster (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kloetinge at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.10 · 51 matches

Groene Ster away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.83 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kloetinge attack 1.92 + Groene Ster defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.88

Groene Ster attack 0.94 + Kloetinge defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Kloetinge scores more

57%

level

22%

Groene Ster scores more

20%

Kloetinge at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Kloetinge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff