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Kloetinge vs Baronie — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

Kloetinge
Kloetinge
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Baronie
Baronie
9/16/2023Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Girone B - 5Sportpark Wesselopark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Kloetinge61%
×Draw20%
Baronie19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kloetinge
2.24
Baronie
1.16

Kloetinge creates 93% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 34 away

creates per match

Kloetinge
1.92
Baronie
1.21

allows per match

Kloetinge
1.10
Baronie
2.56

finishing

Kloetinge+0.00on par
Baronie+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kloetinge ↓

Baronie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Kloetinge or draw
81%
Kloetinge or Baronie
80%
Draw or Baronie
39%

Winning margin

Kloetinge wins by 2+
39%
Baronie wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Kloetinge 1+ goals
89%
Kloetinge 2+ goals
65%
Kloetinge 3+ goals
38%
Baronie 1+ goals
69%
Baronie 2+ goals
32%
Baronie 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Kloetinge (draw refunded)
77%
Baronie (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kloetinge at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.10 · 51 matches

Baronie away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.56 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kloetinge attack 1.92 + Baronie defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 2.24

Baronie attack 1.21 + Kloetinge defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Kloetinge scores more
61%
level
20%
Baronie scores more
19%

Kloetinge at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Kloetinge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Sunday: Kloetinge 2–0 Baronie

Kloetinge beat Baronie 2-0 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on September 16, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark Wesselopark in Kloetinge.