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Klingenbach vs Halbturn — Landesliga - Burgenland 2019

Klingenbach
Klingenbach
FT
1 – 3
Halbturn
Halbturn
6/7/2024Landesliga - BurgenlandLandesliga - Burgenland · Burgenland - 30Grenzstadion Klingenbach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Klingenbach46%
×Draw24%
Halbturn31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Klingenbach
1.72
Halbturn
1.38

Klingenbach creates 25% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 44 away

creates per match

Klingenbach
1.59
Halbturn
1.27

allows per match

Klingenbach
1.48
Halbturn
1.84

finishing

Klingenbach+0.00on par
Halbturn+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Klingenbach ↓

Halbturn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Klingenbach or draw
69%
Klingenbach or Halbturn
76%
Draw or Halbturn
54%

Winning margin

Klingenbach wins by 2+
24%
Halbturn wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Klingenbach 1+ goals
82%
Klingenbach 2+ goals
51%
Klingenbach 3+ goals
25%
Halbturn 1+ goals
75%
Halbturn 2+ goals
40%
Halbturn 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Klingenbach (draw refunded)
60%
Halbturn (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Klingenbach at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.48 · 85 matches

Halbturn away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.84 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Klingenbach attack 1.59 + Halbturn defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.72

Halbturn attack 1.27 + Klingenbach defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Klingenbach scores more
46%
level
24%
Halbturn scores more
31%

Klingenbach at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Klingenbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Burgenland: Klingenbach 1–3 Halbturn

Halbturn beat Klingenbach 3-1 in Landesliga - Burgenland on June 7, 2024.

The match was played at Grenzstadion Klingenbach in Klingenbach.