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Klingenbach vs Deutschkreutz — Landesliga - Burgenland 2019

Klingenbach
Klingenbach
FT
1 – 2
Deutschkreutz
Deutschkreutz
9/27/2024Landesliga - BurgenlandLandesliga - Burgenland · Burgenland - 9Grenzstadion Klingenbach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Klingenbach40%
×Draw23%
Deutschkreutz36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Klingenbach
1.65
Deutschkreutz
1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 86 away

creates per match

Klingenbach
1.59
Deutschkreutz
1.65

allows per match

Klingenbach
1.48
Deutschkreutz
1.70

finishing

Klingenbach+0.00on par
Deutschkreutz+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Klingenbach ↓

Deutschkreutz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Klingenbach or draw
64%
Klingenbach or Deutschkreutz
77%
Draw or Deutschkreutz
60%

Winning margin

Klingenbach wins by 2+
20%
Deutschkreutz wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Klingenbach 1+ goals
81%
Klingenbach 2+ goals
49%
Klingenbach 3+ goals
23%
Deutschkreutz 1+ goals
79%
Deutschkreutz 2+ goals
46%
Deutschkreutz 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Klingenbach (draw refunded)
52%
Deutschkreutz (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Klingenbach at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.48 · 85 matches

Deutschkreutz away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.70 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Klingenbach attack 1.59 + Deutschkreutz defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.65

Deutschkreutz attack 1.65 + Klingenbach defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Klingenbach scores more
40%
level
23%
Deutschkreutz scores more
36%

Klingenbach at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Klingenbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Burgenland: Klingenbach 1–2 Deutschkreutz

Deutschkreutz beat Klingenbach 2-1 in Landesliga - Burgenland on September 27, 2024.

The match was played at Grenzstadion Klingenbach in Klingenbach.