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Kleve vs Union Nettetal — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Kleve
Kleve
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Union Nettetal
Union Nettetal
4/23/2023Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 35Eroglu-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Kleve49%
×Draw22%
Union Nettetal29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kleve
1.94
Union Nettetal
1.43

Kleve creates 36% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 74 away

creates per match

Kleve
1.66
Union Nettetal
1.34

allows per match

Kleve
1.51
Union Nettetal
2.23

finishing

Kleve+0.00on par
Union Nettetal+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kleve ↓

Union Nettetal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Kleve or draw
71%
Kleve or Union Nettetal
78%
Draw or Union Nettetal
51%

Winning margin

Kleve wins by 2+
28%
Union Nettetal wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Kleve 1+ goals
86%
Kleve 2+ goals
58%
Kleve 3+ goals
30%
Union Nettetal 1+ goals
76%
Union Nettetal 2+ goals
42%
Union Nettetal 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Kleve (draw refunded)
63%
Union Nettetal (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kleve at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.51 · 94 matches

Union Nettetal away — creates 1.34, concedes 2.23 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kleve attack 1.66 + Union Nettetal defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.94

Union Nettetal attack 1.34 + Kleve defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Kleve scores more
49%
level
22%
Union Nettetal scores more
29%

Kleve at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Kleve will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Niederrhein: Kleve 4–2 Union Nettetal

Kleve beat Union Nettetal 4-2 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on April 23, 2023.

The match was played at Eroglu-Arena in Kleve.