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Kleve vs TVD Velbert — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Kleve
Kleve
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
TVD Velbert
TVD Velbert
4/5/2023Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 33Eroglu-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Kleve47%
×Draw23%
TVD Velbert30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kleve
1.86
TVD Velbert
1.44

Kleve creates 29% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 72 away

creates per match

Kleve
1.66
TVD Velbert
1.38

allows per match

Kleve
1.51
TVD Velbert
2.07

finishing

Kleve+0.00on par
TVD Velbert+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kleve ↓

TVD Velbert →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Kleve or draw
70%
Kleve or TVD Velbert
77%
Draw or TVD Velbert
53%

Winning margin

Kleve wins by 2+
26%
TVD Velbert wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Kleve 1+ goals
84%
Kleve 2+ goals
55%
Kleve 3+ goals
28%
TVD Velbert 1+ goals
76%
TVD Velbert 2+ goals
42%
TVD Velbert 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Kleve (draw refunded)
61%
TVD Velbert (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kleve at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.51 · 94 matches

TVD Velbert away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.07 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kleve attack 1.66 + TVD Velbert defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.86

TVD Velbert attack 1.38 + Kleve defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kleve scores more
47%
level
23%
TVD Velbert scores more
30%

Kleve at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Kleve will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Niederrhein: Kleve 2–2 TVD Velbert

Kleve and TVD Velbert drew 2-2 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on April 5, 2023.

The match was played at Eroglu-Arena in Kleve.