Kleve 0–1 TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf: Result & Stats

Kleve

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf

8/7/2022

Oberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 1Eroglu-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Kleve48%

×Draw23%

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KleveExpected goals in this matchTuRU 1880 Düsseldorf

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.35

Kleve

1.80

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf

1.35

Kleve creates 33% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 40 away

1.66

creates per match

1.20

1.51

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Kleve

1.66

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf

1.20

allows per match

Kleve

1.51

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kleve+0.00on par

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kleve ↓

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Kleve or draw

71%

Kleve or TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf

77%

Draw or TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf

52%

Winning margin

Kleve wins by 2+

26%

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Kleve 1+ goals

83%

Kleve 2+ goals

54%

Kleve 3+ goals

27%

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf 1+ goals

74%

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf 2+ goals

39%

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Kleve (draw refunded)

62%

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kleve at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.51 · 94 matches

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.95 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kleve attack 1.66 + TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.80

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf attack 1.20 + Kleve defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kleve scores more

48%

level

23%

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf scores more

29%

Kleve at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Kleve will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff