Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kleve vs SF Hamborn — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Kleve
Kleve
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
SF Hamborn
SF Hamborn
3/15/2024Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 23Eroglu-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Kleve51%
×Draw21%
SF Hamborn28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kleve
2.13
SF Hamborn
1.56

Kleve creates 37% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 37 away

creates per match

Kleve
1.66
SF Hamborn
1.62

allows per match

Kleve
1.51
SF Hamborn
2.59

finishing

Kleve+0.00on par
SF Hamborn+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kleve ↓

SF Hamborn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Kleve or draw
72%
Kleve or SF Hamborn
79%
Draw or SF Hamborn
49%

Winning margin

Kleve wins by 2+
30%
SF Hamborn wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Kleve 1+ goals
88%
Kleve 2+ goals
63%
Kleve 3+ goals
35%
SF Hamborn 1+ goals
79%
SF Hamborn 2+ goals
46%
SF Hamborn 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Kleve (draw refunded)
64%
SF Hamborn (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kleve at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.51 · 94 matches

SF Hamborn away — creates 1.62, concedes 2.59 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kleve attack 1.66 + SF Hamborn defence 2.59 → ÷2 → 2.13

SF Hamborn attack 1.62 + Kleve defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Kleve scores more
51%
level
21%
SF Hamborn scores more
28%

Kleve at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Kleve will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kleve vs SF Hamborn

Kleve and SF Hamborn drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on March 15, 2024.

The match was played at Eroglu-Arena in Kleve.