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Kleve vs Meerbusch — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Kleve
Kleve
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Meerbusch
Meerbusch
4/6/2025Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 26Eroglu-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Kleve44%
×Draw23%
Meerbusch33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kleve
1.84
Meerbusch
1.56

Kleve creates 18% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 92 away

creates per match

Kleve
1.66
Meerbusch
1.61

allows per match

Kleve
1.51
Meerbusch
2.02

finishing

Kleve+0.00on par
Meerbusch+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kleve ↓

Meerbusch →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Kleve or draw
67%
Kleve or Meerbusch
77%
Draw or Meerbusch
56%

Winning margin

Kleve wins by 2+
24%
Meerbusch wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Kleve 1+ goals
84%
Kleve 2+ goals
55%
Kleve 3+ goals
28%
Meerbusch 1+ goals
79%
Meerbusch 2+ goals
46%
Meerbusch 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Kleve (draw refunded)
57%
Meerbusch (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kleve at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.51 · 94 matches

Meerbusch away — creates 1.61, concedes 2.02 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kleve attack 1.66 + Meerbusch defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.84

Meerbusch attack 1.61 + Kleve defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Kleve scores more
44%
level
23%
Meerbusch scores more
33%

Kleve at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Kleve will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Niederrhein: Kleve 2–1 Meerbusch

Kleve beat Meerbusch 2-1 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on April 6, 2025.

The match was played at Eroglu-Arena in Kleve.