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Kleve vs Jahn Hiesfeld — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Kleve
Kleve
CANC
18:30
Jahn Hiesfeld
Jahn Hiesfeld
11/4/2020Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 12VolksBank-Arena an der Welbershöhe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Kleve50%
×Draw21%
Jahn Hiesfeld28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kleve
2.06
Jahn Hiesfeld
1.50

Kleve creates 37% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 22 away

creates per match

Kleve
1.66
Jahn Hiesfeld
1.50

allows per match

Kleve
1.51
Jahn Hiesfeld
2.45

finishing

Kleve+0.00on par
Jahn Hiesfeld+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kleve ↓

Jahn Hiesfeld →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Kleve or draw
72%
Kleve or Jahn Hiesfeld
79%
Draw or Jahn Hiesfeld
50%

Winning margin

Kleve wins by 2+
29%
Jahn Hiesfeld wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Kleve 1+ goals
87%
Kleve 2+ goals
61%
Kleve 3+ goals
34%
Jahn Hiesfeld 1+ goals
78%
Jahn Hiesfeld 2+ goals
44%
Jahn Hiesfeld 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Kleve (draw refunded)
64%
Jahn Hiesfeld (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kleve at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.51 · 94 matches

Jahn Hiesfeld away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.45 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kleve attack 1.66 + Jahn Hiesfeld defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.06

Jahn Hiesfeld attack 1.50 + Kleve defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Kleve scores more
50%
level
21%
Jahn Hiesfeld scores more
28%

Kleve at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Kleve will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kleve face Jahn Hiesfeld (Oberliga - Niederrhein)

Oberliga - Niederrhein returns with Kleve hosting Jahn Hiesfeld. Match starts November 4, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Kleve host Jahn Hiesfeld at VolksBank-Arena an der Welbershöhe.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.