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Kleve vs 1.FC Monchengladbach — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Kleve
Kleve
CANC
14:00
1.FC Monchengladbach
1.FC Monchengladbach
3/14/2021Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 30VolksBank-Arena an der Welbershöhe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Kleve65%
×Draw18%
1.FC Monchengladbach17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kleve
2.51
1.FC Monchengladbach
1.21

Kleve creates 107% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 22 away

creates per match

Kleve
1.66
1.FC Monchengladbach
0.91

allows per match

Kleve
1.51
1.FC Monchengladbach
3.36

finishing

Kleve+0.00on par
1.FC Monchengladbach+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kleve ↓

1.FC Monchengladbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Kleve or draw
83%
Kleve or 1.FC Monchengladbach
82%
Draw or 1.FC Monchengladbach
35%

Winning margin

Kleve wins by 2+
43%
1.FC Monchengladbach wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Kleve 1+ goals
92%
Kleve 2+ goals
71%
Kleve 3+ goals
45%
1.FC Monchengladbach 1+ goals
70%
1.FC Monchengladbach 2+ goals
34%
1.FC Monchengladbach 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Kleve (draw refunded)
79%
1.FC Monchengladbach (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kleve at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.51 · 94 matches

1.FC Monchengladbach away — creates 0.91, concedes 3.36 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kleve attack 1.66 + 1.FC Monchengladbach defence 3.36 → ÷2 → 2.51

1.FC Monchengladbach attack 0.91 + Kleve defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Kleve scores more
65%
level
18%
1.FC Monchengladbach scores more
17%

Kleve at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Kleve will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Kleve host 1.FC Monchengladbach

March 14, 2021: Kleve take on 1.FC Monchengladbach in Oberliga - Niederrhein. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Kleve host 1.FC Monchengladbach at VolksBank-Arena an der Welbershöhe.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.