Klepp W 2–4 Fortuna Ålesund: Result & Stats

Klepp W

FT

2 – 4

Fortuna Ålesund

4/18/2022

1. Division Women · Round 4Klepp Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Klepp W24%

×Draw22%

Fortuna Ålesund54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Klepp WExpected goals in this matchFortuna Ålesund

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

2.02

Klepp W

1.29

Fortuna Ålesund

2.02

Fortuna Ålesund creates 57% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 48 away

1.33

creates per match

1.67

2.37

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Klepp W

1.33

Fortuna Ålesund

1.67

allows per match

Klepp W

2.37

Fortuna Ålesund

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Klepp W+0.00on par

Fortuna Ålesund+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Klepp W ↓

Fortuna Ålesund →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Klepp W or draw

46%

Klepp W or Fortuna Ålesund

78%

Draw or Fortuna Ålesund

76%

Winning margin

Klepp W wins by 2+

10%

Fortuna Ålesund wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Klepp W 1+ goals

72%

Klepp W 2+ goals

37%

Klepp W 3+ goals

14%

Fortuna Ålesund 1+ goals

87%

Fortuna Ålesund 2+ goals

60%

Fortuna Ålesund 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Klepp W (draw refunded)

31%

Fortuna Ålesund (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Klepp W at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.37 · 30 matches

Fortuna Ålesund away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.25 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Klepp W attack 1.33 + Fortuna Ålesund defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

Fortuna Ålesund attack 1.67 + Klepp W defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Klepp W scores more

24%

level

22%

Fortuna Ålesund scores more

54%

Fortuna Ålesund at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Fortuna Ålesund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff