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Klatovy vs Slavoj Mýto — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Klatovy
Klatovy
FT
0 – 2
Slavoj Mýto
Slavoj Mýto
8/17/20194. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Round 2Stadion Na Rozvoji (Klatovy)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Klatovy59%
×Draw21%
Slavoj Mýto21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Klatovy
2.13
Slavoj Mýto
1.18

Klatovy creates 81% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 22 away

creates per match

Klatovy
1.89
Slavoj Mýto
0.82

allows per match

Klatovy
1.53
Slavoj Mýto
2.36

finishing

Klatovy+0.00on par
Slavoj Mýto+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Klatovy ↓

Slavoj Mýto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Klatovy or draw
79%
Klatovy or Slavoj Mýto
79%
Draw or Slavoj Mýto
41%

Winning margin

Klatovy wins by 2+
36%
Slavoj Mýto wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Klatovy 1+ goals
88%
Klatovy 2+ goals
63%
Klatovy 3+ goals
35%
Slavoj Mýto 1+ goals
69%
Slavoj Mýto 2+ goals
33%
Slavoj Mýto 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Klatovy (draw refunded)
74%
Slavoj Mýto (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Klatovy at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.53 · 57 matches

Slavoj Mýto away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.36 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Klatovy attack 1.89 + Slavoj Mýto defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.13

Slavoj Mýto attack 0.82 + Klatovy defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Klatovy scores more
59%
level
21%
Slavoj Mýto scores more
21%

Klatovy at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Klatovy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Klatovy vs Slavoj Mýto

Slavoj Mýto beat Klatovy 2-0 in 4. liga - Divizie A on August 17, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Na Rozvoji (Klatovy).