Klatovy 6–1 Slavoj Český Krumlov: Result & Stats

Klatovy

FT

6 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Slavoj Český Krumlov

8/26/2023

4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 4Stadion Na Rozvoji

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Klatovy49%

×Draw21%

Slavoj Český Krumlov30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KlatovyExpected goals in this matchSlavoj Český Krumlov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

1.58

Klatovy

2.06

Slavoj Český Krumlov

1.58

Klatovy creates 30% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 60 away

1.89

creates per match

1.63

1.53

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Klatovy

1.89

Slavoj Český Krumlov

1.63

allows per match

Klatovy

1.53

Slavoj Český Krumlov

2.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Klatovy+0.00on par

Slavoj Český Krumlov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Klatovy ↓

Slavoj Český Krumlov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Klatovy or draw

70%

Klatovy or Slavoj Český Krumlov

79%

Draw or Slavoj Český Krumlov

51%

Winning margin

Klatovy wins by 2+

28%

Slavoj Český Krumlov wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Klatovy 1+ goals

87%

Klatovy 2+ goals

61%

Klatovy 3+ goals

34%

Slavoj Český Krumlov 1+ goals

79%

Slavoj Český Krumlov 2+ goals

47%

Slavoj Český Krumlov 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Klatovy (draw refunded)

62%

Slavoj Český Krumlov (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Klatovy at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.53 · 57 matches

Slavoj Český Krumlov away — creates 1.63, concedes 2.22 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Klatovy attack 1.89 + Slavoj Český Krumlov defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.06

Slavoj Český Krumlov attack 1.63 + Klatovy defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Klatovy scores more

49%

level

21%

Slavoj Český Krumlov scores more

30%

Klatovy at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Klatovy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff