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Klatovy vs Petřín Plzeň — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Klatovy
Klatovy
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Petřín Plzeň
Petřín Plzeň
3/29/20244. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 20Stadion Na Rozvoji

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Klatovy39%
×Draw22%
Petřín Plzeň39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Klatovy
1.78
Petřín Plzeň
1.79

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 55 away

creates per match

Klatovy
1.89
Petřín Plzeň
2.05

allows per match

Klatovy
1.53
Petřín Plzeň
1.67

finishing

Klatovy+0.00on par
Petřín Plzeň+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Klatovy ↓

Petřín Plzeň →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Klatovy or draw
61%
Klatovy or Petřín Plzeň
78%
Draw or Petřín Plzeň
61%

Winning margin

Klatovy wins by 2+
20%
Petřín Plzeň wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Klatovy 1+ goals
83%
Klatovy 2+ goals
53%
Klatovy 3+ goals
26%
Petřín Plzeň 1+ goals
83%
Petřín Plzeň 2+ goals
53%
Petřín Plzeň 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Klatovy (draw refunded)
50%
Petřín Plzeň (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Klatovy at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.53 · 57 matches

Petřín Plzeň away — creates 2.05, concedes 1.67 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Klatovy attack 1.89 + Petřín Plzeň defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.78

Petřín Plzeň attack 2.05 + Klatovy defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Klatovy scores more
39%
level
22%
Petřín Plzeň scores more
39%

Klatovy at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Klatovy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Klatovy vs Petřín Plzeň

Petřín Plzeň beat Klatovy 2-0 in 4. liga - Divizie A on March 29, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Na Rozvoji in Klatovy.