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Klatovy vs Otava Katovice — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Klatovy
Klatovy
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Otava Katovice
Otava Katovice
6/15/20224. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 30Dudák Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Klatovy52%
×Draw21%
Otava Katovice26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Klatovy
2.09
Otava Katovice
1.44

Klatovy creates 45% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 56 away

creates per match

Klatovy
1.89
Otava Katovice
1.34

allows per match

Klatovy
1.53
Otava Katovice
2.30

finishing

Klatovy+0.00on par
Otava Katovice+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Klatovy ↓

Otava Katovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Klatovy or draw
74%
Klatovy or Otava Katovice
79%
Draw or Otava Katovice
48%

Winning margin

Klatovy wins by 2+
31%
Otava Katovice wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Klatovy 1+ goals
88%
Klatovy 2+ goals
62%
Klatovy 3+ goals
34%
Otava Katovice 1+ goals
76%
Otava Katovice 2+ goals
42%
Otava Katovice 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Klatovy (draw refunded)
66%
Otava Katovice (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Klatovy at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.53 · 57 matches

Otava Katovice away — creates 1.34, concedes 2.30 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Klatovy attack 1.89 + Otava Katovice defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.09

Otava Katovice attack 1.34 + Klatovy defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Klatovy scores more
52%
level
21%
Otava Katovice scores more
26%

Klatovy at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Klatovy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Klatovy vs Otava Katovice

Klatovy and Otava Katovice drew 2-2 in 4. liga - Divizie A on June 15, 2022.

The match was played at Dudák Arena in Katovice.