Klatovy 3–1 Aritma Praha: Result & Stats

Klatovy

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Aritma Praha

6/10/2023

4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 30Stadion Na Rozvoji

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Klatovy33%

×Draw23%

Aritma Praha44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KlatovyExpected goals in this matchAritma Praha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.75

Klatovy

1.49

Aritma Praha

1.75

Aritma Praha creates 17% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 45 away

1.89

creates per match

1.98

1.53

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Klatovy

1.89

Aritma Praha

1.98

allows per match

Klatovy

1.53

Aritma Praha

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Klatovy+0.00on par

Aritma Praha+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Klatovy ↓

Aritma Praha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Klatovy or draw

56%

Klatovy or Aritma Praha

77%

Draw or Aritma Praha

67%

Winning margin

Klatovy wins by 2+

15%

Aritma Praha wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Klatovy 1+ goals

77%

Klatovy 2+ goals

44%

Klatovy 3+ goals

19%

Aritma Praha 1+ goals

83%

Aritma Praha 2+ goals

52%

Aritma Praha 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Klatovy (draw refunded)

43%

Aritma Praha (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Klatovy at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.53 · 57 matches

Aritma Praha away — creates 1.98, concedes 1.09 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Klatovy attack 1.89 + Aritma Praha defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.49

Aritma Praha attack 1.98 + Klatovy defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Klatovy scores more

33%

level

23%

Aritma Praha scores more

44%

Aritma Praha at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Aritma Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff