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Klaipėdos FM vs Viltis Vilnius — Cup 2020

Klaipėdos FM
Klaipėdos FM
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Viltis Vilnius
Viltis Vilnius
4/12/2025CupCup · 1st RoundKlaipėdos FM dirbtinės dangos aikštė

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Klaipėdos FM14%
×Draw16%
Viltis Vilnius70%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Klaipėdos FM
1.15
Viltis Vilnius
2.71

Viltis Vilnius creates 136% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Klaipėdos FM
1.29
Viltis Vilnius
3.00

allows per match

Klaipėdos FM
2.43
Viltis Vilnius
1.00

finishing

Klaipėdos FM+0.00on par
Viltis Vilnius+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Klaipėdos FM ↓

Viltis Vilnius →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–28%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–25%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Klaipėdos FM or draw
30%
Klaipėdos FM or Viltis Vilnius
84%
Draw or Viltis Vilnius
86%

Winning margin

Klaipėdos FM wins by 2+
5%
Viltis Vilnius wins by 2+
49%

Team goals

Klaipėdos FM 1+ goals
68%
Klaipėdos FM 2+ goals
32%
Klaipėdos FM 3+ goals
11%
Viltis Vilnius 1+ goals
93%
Viltis Vilnius 2+ goals
75%
Viltis Vilnius 3+ goals
50%

Draw no bet

Klaipėdos FM (draw refunded)
17%
Viltis Vilnius (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Klaipėdos FM at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

Viltis Vilnius away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Klaipėdos FM attack 1.29 + Viltis Vilnius defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.15

Viltis Vilnius attack 3.00 + Klaipėdos FM defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Klaipėdos FM scores more
14%
level
16%
Viltis Vilnius scores more
70%

Viltis Vilnius at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Viltis Vilnius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Klaipėdos FM 3–1 Viltis Vilnius

Klaipėdos FM beat Viltis Vilnius 3-1 in Cup on April 12, 2025.

The match was played at Klaipėdos FM dirbtinės dangos aikštė in Klaipėda.