Klaipėdos FM 0–6 Džiugas Telšiai: Result & Stats

Klaipėdos FM

0 – 6

HT: 0 – 2

Džiugas Telšiai

A. Emsis 78', 56', 28'

N. Milev 69', 24'

A. Koike 60'

5/23/2021

Cup · 1st RoundKlaipėdos centrinio stadiono atsarginė aikštė

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Klaipėdos FM15%

×Draw17%

Džiugas Telšiai68%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Klaipėdos FMExpected goals in this matchDžiugas Telšiai

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

2.62

Klaipėdos FM

1.15

Džiugas Telšiai

2.62

Džiugas Telšiai creates 128% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 16 away

1.29

creates per match

2.81

2.43

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Klaipėdos FM

1.29

Džiugas Telšiai

2.81

allows per match

Klaipėdos FM

2.43

Džiugas Telšiai

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Klaipėdos FM+0.00on par

Džiugas Telšiai+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Klaipėdos FM ↓

Džiugas Telšiai →

0–02%

0–16%

0–28%

0–37%

0–45%

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2–02%

2–14%

2–25%

2–35%

2–43%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Klaipėdos FM or draw

32%

Klaipėdos FM or Džiugas Telšiai

83%

Draw or Džiugas Telšiai

85%

Winning margin

Klaipėdos FM wins by 2+

Džiugas Telšiai wins by 2+

47%

Team goals

Klaipėdos FM 1+ goals

68%

Klaipėdos FM 2+ goals

32%

Klaipėdos FM 3+ goals

11%

Džiugas Telšiai 1+ goals

93%

Džiugas Telšiai 2+ goals

73%

Džiugas Telšiai 3+ goals

48%

Draw no bet

Klaipėdos FM (draw refunded)

18%

Džiugas Telšiai (draw refunded)

82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Klaipėdos FM at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

Džiugas Telšiai away — creates 2.81, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Klaipėdos FM attack 1.29 + Džiugas Telšiai defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.15

Džiugas Telšiai attack 2.81 + Klaipėdos FM defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 68%?"

Klaipėdos FM scores more

15%

level

17%

Džiugas Telšiai scores more

68%

Džiugas Telšiai at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Džiugas Telšiai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

N. Milev

28'

A. Emsis

46'

M. Paukštė← P. Survila

46'

M. Vasiliauskas← R. Stanulevičius

46'

R. Lazdinauskas← A. Mika

46'

Y. Koike← Leonardo

46'

A. Koike← Leonardo Antonio

56'

J. Jučas← N. Šimkutis

56'

A. Emsis

60'

A. Koike

63'

J. Vysniauskas← J. Malinauskis

69'

N. Milev

71'

G. Merkevičius← H. Vaitkus

78'

A. Emsis

82'

G. Kubilius← D. Gerulaitis

87'

A. Gečas← E. Žukauskas

Klaipėdos

Džiugas

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

⚽3

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: T. Domarkas

56'▲J. Jučas←▼N. Šimkutis

63'▲J. Vysniauskas←▼J. Malinauskis

71'▲G. Merkevičius←▼H. Vaitkus

82'▲G. Kubilius←▼D. Gerulaitis

87'▲A. Gečas←▼E. Žukauskas

Klaipėdos FM substitutes

JučasVysniauskasMerkevičiusKubiliusGečasRiaukaNorvaišis

Manager: M. Šluta

46'▲M. Paukštė←▼P. Survila

46'▲M. Vasiliauskas←▼R. Stanulevičius

46'▲R. Lazdinauskas←▼A. Mika

46'▲Y. Koike←▼Leonardo

46'▲A. Koike←▼Leonardo Antonio

Džiugas Telšiai substitutes

PaukštėVasiliauskasLazdinauskasKoikeKoikeKeliauskasAnkudinovas

Cup: Klaipėdos FM 0–6 Džiugas Telšiai

Džiugas Telšiai beat Klaipėdos FM 6-0 in Cup on May 23, 2021.

Goals: N. Milev (24', 69'), A. Emsis (28', 56', 78'), A. Koike (60').

The match was played at Klaipėdos centrinio stadiono atsarginė aikštė in Klaipėda.

Klaipėdos FM vs Džiugas Telšiai — Cup 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Cup: Klaipėdos FM 0–6 Džiugas Telšiai