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Kladno vs Tatran Rakovník — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Kladno
Kladno
PST
15:00
Tatran Rakovník
Tatran Rakovník
5/3/20204. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Round 24Stadion Františka Kloze (Kladno)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Kladno79%
×Draw13%
Tatran Rakovník8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kladno
3.04
Tatran Rakovník
0.89

Kladno creates 242% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 24 away

creates per match

Kladno
2.71
Tatran Rakovník
0.75

allows per match

Kladno
1.02
Tatran Rakovník
3.38

finishing

Kladno+0.00on par
Tatran Rakovník+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kladno ↓

Tatran Rakovník →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (10%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Kladno or draw
92%
Kladno or Tatran Rakovník
87%
Draw or Tatran Rakovník
21%

Winning margin

Kladno wins by 2+
60%
Tatran Rakovník wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Kladno 1+ goals
95%
Kladno 2+ goals
80%
Kladno 3+ goals
57%
Tatran Rakovník 1+ goals
59%
Tatran Rakovník 2+ goals
22%
Tatran Rakovník 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Kladno (draw refunded)
91%
Tatran Rakovník (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kladno at home — creates 2.71, concedes 1.02 · 56 matches

Tatran Rakovník away — creates 0.75, concedes 3.38 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kladno attack 2.71 + Tatran Rakovník defence 3.38 → ÷2 → 3.04

Tatran Rakovník attack 0.75 + Kladno defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Kladno scores more
79%
level
13%
Tatran Rakovník scores more
8%

Kladno at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Kladno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kladno face Tatran Rakovník (4. liga - Divizie B)

4. liga - Divizie B returns with Kladno hosting Tatran Rakovník. Match starts May 3, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Kladno host Tatran Rakovník at Stadion Františka Kloze (Kladno).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.