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Kladno vs Sokol Nespeky — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Kladno
Kladno
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Sokol Nespeky
Sokol Nespeky
11/4/20234. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 14Františka Kloze UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Kladno75%
×Draw15%
Sokol Nespeky10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kladno
2.79
Sokol Nespeky
0.95

Kladno creates 194% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 15 away

creates per match

Kladno
2.71
Sokol Nespeky
0.87

allows per match

Kladno
1.02
Sokol Nespeky
2.87

finishing

Kladno+0.00on par
Sokol Nespeky+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kladno ↓

Sokol Nespeky →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Kladno or draw
90%
Kladno or Sokol Nespeky
85%
Draw or Sokol Nespeky
25%

Winning margin

Kladno wins by 2+
54%
Sokol Nespeky wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Kladno 1+ goals
94%
Kladno 2+ goals
76%
Kladno 3+ goals
52%
Sokol Nespeky 1+ goals
61%
Sokol Nespeky 2+ goals
25%
Sokol Nespeky 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Kladno (draw refunded)
88%
Sokol Nespeky (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kladno at home — creates 2.71, concedes 1.02 · 56 matches

Sokol Nespeky away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kladno attack 2.71 + Sokol Nespeky defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.79

Sokol Nespeky attack 0.87 + Kladno defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Kladno scores more
75%
level
15%
Sokol Nespeky scores more
10%

Kladno at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Kladno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kladno vs Sokol Nespeky

Kladno beat Sokol Nespeky 5-1 in 4. liga - Divizie B on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Františka Kloze UMT in Kladno.