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Kladno vs Dobříš — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Kladno
Kladno
CANC
08:15
Dobříš
Dobříš
4/24/20214. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 21Stadion Františka Kloze

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Kladno78%
×Draw13%
Dobříš9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kladno
3.06
Dobříš
0.99

Kladno creates 209% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 24 away

creates per match

Kladno
2.71
Dobříš
0.96

allows per match

Kladno
1.02
Dobříš
3.42

finishing

Kladno+0.00on par
Dobříš+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kladno ↓

Dobříš →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–19%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Kladno or draw
91%
Kladno or Dobříš
87%
Draw or Dobříš
22%

Winning margin

Kladno wins by 2+
58%
Dobříš wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Kladno 1+ goals
95%
Kladno 2+ goals
80%
Kladno 3+ goals
57%
Dobříš 1+ goals
63%
Dobříš 2+ goals
26%
Dobříš 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Kladno (draw refunded)
89%
Dobříš (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kladno at home — creates 2.71, concedes 1.02 · 56 matches

Dobříš away — creates 0.96, concedes 3.42 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kladno attack 2.71 + Dobříš defence 3.42 → ÷2 → 3.06

Dobříš attack 0.96 + Kladno defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Kladno scores more
78%
level
13%
Dobříš scores more
9%

Kladno at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Kladno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Kladno host Dobříš

April 24, 2021: Kladno take on Dobříš in 4. liga - Divizie B. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Kladno host Dobříš at Stadion Františka Kloze.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.