Kjelsås 1–4 Strommen: Result & Stats

Kjelsås

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Strommen

H. Vassdal 78'

M. Sundberg 69' (pen), 2'

A. Nord 41'

J. Bruusgaard 27'

10/26/2024

2. Division - Group 2 · Group 2 - 26Grefsen Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Kjelsås46%

×Draw23%

Strommen31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KjelsåsExpected goals in this matchStrommen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.50

Kjelsås

1.86

Strommen

1.50

Kjelsås creates 24% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 39 away

2.27

creates per match

1.64

1.37

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Kjelsås

2.27

Strommen

1.64

allows per match

Kjelsås

1.37

Strommen

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kjelsås+0.00on par

Strommen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kjelsås ↓

Strommen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Kjelsås or draw

69%

Kjelsås or Strommen

77%

Draw or Strommen

54%

Winning margin

Kjelsås wins by 2+

25%

Strommen wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Kjelsås 1+ goals

84%

Kjelsås 2+ goals

55%

Kjelsås 3+ goals

28%

Strommen 1+ goals

78%

Strommen 2+ goals

44%

Strommen 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Kjelsås (draw refunded)

60%

Strommen (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kjelsås at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.37 · 70 matches

Strommen away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.46 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kjelsås attack 2.27 + Strommen defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.86

Strommen attack 1.64 + Kjelsås defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Kjelsås scores more

46%

level

23%

Strommen scores more

31%

Kjelsås at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Kjelsås will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

27'

41'

46'

46'

68'

69'

M. SundbergPenalty

70'

M. Alzubi← Ahmad Abbas

70'

C. Broch← J. Aslaksrud

75'

S. Rindal

78'

J. Emblem-Olsen← M. Bjurstrøm

78'

H. Vassdal

81'

O. Housni← M. Aadnøy

81'

E. Rogne← J. Bruusgaard

88'

O. Henriksrud← J. Kristengård

90+3'

H. Mohr← S. Rindal

90+3'

S. Nilsen← A. Nord

Kjelsås

Strommen

12

Stær-Jens

3

Crestani

5

▼

Aadnøy

8

Åsvestad

2

▼

Rindal

4

Balatoni

55

Abbas

14

▼

Kristengå

16

⚽

▼

Nord

7

⚽

▼

Bruusgaar

11

⚽2

1

17

22

2

▼

Bjurstrøm

3

▼

Oprea

8

Willumsen

21

Berge

10

▼

Abbas

9

▼

Aslaksrud

7

Eriksen

27

Mahammed

Manager: E. Kampen

46'▲H. Vassdal←▼F. Oprea

70'▲M. Alzubi←▼Ahmad Abbas

70'▲C. Broch←▼J. Aslaksrud

78'▲J. Emblem-Olsen←▼M. Bjurstrøm

Kjelsås substitutes

4Vassdal13Alzubi15Broch18Emblem-Olsen19Askengren24Osnes29Halvorsen30Kirsebom14Hanssen

Manager: Ø. Heiberg

81'▲O. Housni←▼M. Aadnøy

81'▲E. Rogne←▼J. Bruusgaard

88'▲O. Henriksrud←▼J. Kristengård

90+3'▲H. Mohr←▼S. Rindal

90+3'▲S. Nilsen←▼A. Nord

Strommen substitutes

17Housni27Rogne26Henriksrud20Mohr33Nilsen10Achrifi25Aronsen30Kollstrom45Sunde