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Kjelsås vs Floro — 2. Division - Group 2 2019

Kjelsås
Kjelsås
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Floro
Floro
5/26/20192. Division - Group 22. Division - Group 2 · Round 7Grefsen Stadion (Oslo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kjelsås56%
×Draw22%
Floro22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kjelsås
2.01
Floro
1.18

Kjelsås creates 70% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 13 away

creates per match

Kjelsås
2.26
Floro
1.00

allows per match

Kjelsås
1.35
Floro
1.77

finishing

Kjelsås+0.00on par
Floro+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kjelsås ↓

Floro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Kjelsås or draw
78%
Kjelsås or Floro
78%
Draw or Floro
44%

Winning margin

Kjelsås wins by 2+
33%
Floro wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Kjelsås 1+ goals
87%
Kjelsås 2+ goals
59%
Kjelsås 3+ goals
32%
Floro 1+ goals
69%
Floro 2+ goals
33%
Floro 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Kjelsås (draw refunded)
72%
Floro (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kjelsås at home — creates 2.26, concedes 1.35 · 72 matches

Floro away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kjelsås attack 2.26 + Floro defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 2.01

Floro attack 1.00 + Kjelsås defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Kjelsås scores more
56%
level
22%
Floro scores more
22%

Kjelsås at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Kjelsås will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Division - Group 2: Kjelsås 3–1 Floro

Kjelsås beat Floro 3-1 in 2. Division - Group 2 on May 26, 2019.

The match was played at Grefsen Stadion (Oslo).