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Kjelsås vs Brattvåg — 2. Division - Group 2 2019

Kjelsås
Kjelsås
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Brattvåg
Brattvåg
9/18/20222. Division - Group 22. Division - Group 2 · Group 2 - 21Grefsen Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kjelsås59%
×Draw19%
Brattvåg22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kjelsås
2.47
Brattvåg
1.49

Kjelsås creates 66% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 13 away

creates per match

Kjelsås
2.26
Brattvåg
1.62

allows per match

Kjelsås
1.35
Brattvåg
2.69

finishing

Kjelsås+0.00on par
Brattvåg+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kjelsås ↓

Brattvåg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Kjelsås or draw
78%
Kjelsås or Brattvåg
81%
Draw or Brattvåg
41%

Winning margin

Kjelsås wins by 2+
38%
Brattvåg wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Kjelsås 1+ goals
91%
Kjelsås 2+ goals
70%
Kjelsås 3+ goals
44%
Brattvåg 1+ goals
77%
Brattvåg 2+ goals
44%
Brattvåg 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Kjelsås (draw refunded)
72%
Brattvåg (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kjelsås at home — creates 2.26, concedes 1.35 · 72 matches

Brattvåg away — creates 1.62, concedes 2.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kjelsås attack 2.26 + Brattvåg defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 2.47

Brattvåg attack 1.62 + Kjelsås defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Kjelsås scores more
59%
level
19%
Brattvåg scores more
22%

Kjelsås at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Kjelsås will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kjelsås vs Brattvåg

Kjelsås beat Brattvåg 2-0 in 2. Division - Group 2 on September 18, 2022.

The match was played at Grefsen Stadion in Oslo.