Kjelsås II 0–1 Skeid II: Result & Stats

Kjelsås II

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Skeid II

5/31/2022

3. Division - Girone 1 · Girone 1 - 8Grefsen Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kjelsås II39%

×Draw21%

Skeid II40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kjelsås IIExpected goals in this matchSkeid II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

2.04

Kjelsås II

2.00

Skeid II

2.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

1.54

creates per match

2.31

1.77

allows per match

2.46

creates per match

Kjelsås II

1.54

Skeid II

2.31

allows per match

Kjelsås II

1.77

Skeid II

2.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kjelsås II+0.00on par

Skeid II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kjelsås II ↓

Skeid II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Kjelsås II or draw

60%

Kjelsås II or Skeid II

79%

Draw or Skeid II

61%

Winning margin

Kjelsås II wins by 2+

21%

Skeid II wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Kjelsås II 1+ goals

86%

Kjelsås II 2+ goals

59%

Kjelsås II 3+ goals

32%

Skeid II 1+ goals

87%

Skeid II 2+ goals

60%

Skeid II 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Kjelsås II (draw refunded)

49%

Skeid II (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kjelsås II at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

Skeid II away — creates 2.31, concedes 2.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kjelsås II attack 1.54 + Skeid II defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.00

Skeid II attack 2.31 + Kjelsås II defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Kjelsås II scores more

39%

level

21%

Skeid II scores more

40%

Skeid II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Skeid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff