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Kjelsås II vs Os — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Kjelsås II
Kjelsås II
FT
5 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Os
Os
9/25/20223. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Girone 1 - 22Grefsen Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kjelsås II32%
×Draw21%
Os47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kjelsås II
1.67
Os
2.04

Os creates 22% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 39 away

creates per match

Kjelsås II
1.54
Os
2.31

allows per match

Kjelsås II
1.77
Os
1.79

finishing

Kjelsås II+0.00on par
Os+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kjelsås II ↓

Os →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Kjelsås II or draw
53%
Kjelsås II or Os
79%
Draw or Os
68%

Winning margin

Kjelsås II wins by 2+
16%
Os wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Kjelsås II 1+ goals
81%
Kjelsås II 2+ goals
50%
Kjelsås II 3+ goals
23%
Os 1+ goals
87%
Os 2+ goals
60%
Os 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Kjelsås II (draw refunded)
41%
Os (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kjelsås II at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

Os away — creates 2.31, concedes 1.79 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kjelsås II attack 1.54 + Os defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.67

Os attack 2.31 + Kjelsås II defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kjelsås II scores more
32%
level
21%
Os scores more
47%

Os at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Os will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 1: Kjelsås II 5–3 Os

Kjelsås II beat Os 5-3 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on September 25, 2022.

The match was played at Grefsen Stadion in Oslo.