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Kjelsås II vs Nordstrand — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Kjelsås II
Kjelsås II
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Nordstrand
Nordstrand
O. Midtgard 83', 25'
8/28/20223. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Girone 1 - 18Grefsen Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kjelsås II29%
×Draw22%
Nordstrand49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kjelsås II
1.48
Nordstrand
1.97

Nordstrand creates 33% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 19 away

creates per match

Kjelsås II
1.54
Nordstrand
2.16

allows per match

Kjelsås II
1.77
Nordstrand
1.42

finishing

Kjelsås II+0.00on par
Nordstrand+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kjelsås II ↓

Nordstrand →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Kjelsås II or draw
51%
Kjelsås II or Nordstrand
78%
Draw or Nordstrand
71%

Winning margin

Kjelsås II wins by 2+
13%
Nordstrand wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Kjelsås II 1+ goals
77%
Kjelsås II 2+ goals
43%
Kjelsås II 3+ goals
19%
Nordstrand 1+ goals
86%
Nordstrand 2+ goals
58%
Nordstrand 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Kjelsås II (draw refunded)
37%
Nordstrand (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kjelsås II at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

Nordstrand away — creates 2.16, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kjelsås II attack 1.54 + Nordstrand defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.48

Nordstrand attack 2.16 + Kjelsås II defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Kjelsås II scores more
29%
level
22%
Nordstrand scores more
49%

Nordstrand at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Nordstrand will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
O. Midtgard
83'
O. Midtgard

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kjelsås II vs Nordstrand

Nordstrand beat Kjelsås II 2-0 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on August 28, 2022.

Goals: O. Midtgard (25', 83').

The match was played at Grefsen Stadion in Oslo.