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Kjellerup vs Tarup-Paarup — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Kjellerup
Kjellerup
FT
1 – 1
Tarup-Paarup
Tarup-Paarup
3/30/20192nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 20Bjergets Idrætsanlæg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Kjellerup37%
×Draw26%
Tarup-Paarup38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kjellerup
1.34
Tarup-Paarup
1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 8 away

creates per match

Kjellerup
1.30
Tarup-Paarup
0.63

allows per match

Kjellerup
2.10
Tarup-Paarup
1.38

finishing

Kjellerup+0.00on par
Tarup-Paarup+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kjellerup ↓

Tarup-Paarup →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Kjellerup or draw
62%
Kjellerup or Tarup-Paarup
74%
Draw or Tarup-Paarup
63%

Winning margin

Kjellerup wins by 2+
16%
Tarup-Paarup wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Kjellerup 1+ goals
74%
Kjellerup 2+ goals
39%
Kjellerup 3+ goals
15%
Tarup-Paarup 1+ goals
74%
Tarup-Paarup 2+ goals
39%
Tarup-Paarup 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Kjellerup (draw refunded)
49%
Tarup-Paarup (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kjellerup at home — creates 1.30, concedes 2.10 · 10 matches

Tarup-Paarup away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kjellerup attack 1.30 + Tarup-Paarup defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.34

Tarup-Paarup attack 0.63 + Kjellerup defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Kjellerup scores more
37%
level
26%
Tarup-Paarup scores more
38%

Tarup-Paarup at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Tarup-Paarup will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kjellerup vs Tarup-Paarup

Kjellerup and Tarup-Paarup drew 1-1 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on March 30, 2019.

The match was played at Bjergets Idrætsanlæg in Kjellerup.