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Kjellerup vs Skive — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Kjellerup
Kjellerup
FT
1 – 7
Skive
Skive
3/15/20192nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 18Kjellerup Kunstgræsbane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Kjellerup30%
×Draw24%
Skive47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kjellerup
1.34
Skive
1.73

Skive creates 29% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 84 away

creates per match

Kjellerup
1.30
Skive
1.35

allows per match

Kjellerup
2.10
Skive
1.38

finishing

Kjellerup+0.00on par
Skive+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kjellerup ↓

Skive →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Kjellerup or draw
53%
Kjellerup or Skive
76%
Draw or Skive
70%

Winning margin

Kjellerup wins by 2+
13%
Skive wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Kjellerup 1+ goals
74%
Kjellerup 2+ goals
39%
Kjellerup 3+ goals
15%
Skive 1+ goals
82%
Skive 2+ goals
52%
Skive 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Kjellerup (draw refunded)
39%
Skive (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kjellerup at home — creates 1.30, concedes 2.10 · 10 matches

Skive away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.38 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kjellerup attack 1.30 + Skive defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.34

Skive attack 1.35 + Kjellerup defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kjellerup scores more
30%
level
24%
Skive scores more
47%

Skive at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Skive will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2nd Division - Group 1: Kjellerup 1–7 Skive

Skive beat Kjellerup 7-1 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on March 15, 2019.

The match was played at Kjellerup Kunstgræsbane in Kjellerup.