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Kjellerup vs Odder — League #127 2026

Kjellerup
Kjellerup
FT
4 – 2
Odder
Odder
4/29/2022League #127League #127 · Group 4 - 20XL-byg Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kjellerup21%
×Draw20%
Odder59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kjellerup
1.33
Odder
2.33

Odder creates 75% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Kjellerup
1.33
Odder
2.33

allows per match

Kjellerup
2.33
Odder
1.33

finishing

Kjellerup+0.00on par
Odder+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kjellerup ↓

Odder →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Kjellerup or draw
41%
Kjellerup or Odder
80%
Draw or Odder
79%

Winning margin

Kjellerup wins by 2+
9%
Odder wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Kjellerup 1+ goals
74%
Kjellerup 2+ goals
38%
Kjellerup 3+ goals
15%
Odder 1+ goals
90%
Odder 2+ goals
67%
Odder 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Kjellerup (draw refunded)
26%
Odder (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kjellerup at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Odder away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kjellerup attack 1.33 + Odder defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Odder attack 2.33 + Kjellerup defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Kjellerup scores more
21%
level
20%
Odder scores more
59%

Odder at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Odder will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kjellerup vs Odder

Kjellerup beat Odder 4-2 in League #127 on April 29, 2022.

The match was played at XL-byg Arena in Kjellerup.