Kiyovu Sports 3–2 Vision: Result & Stats

Kiyovu Sports

FT

3 – 2

HT: 3 – 2

Vision

12/21/2024

National Soccer League · Round 14Kigali Pelé Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Kiyovu Sports57%

×Draw25%

Vision18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kiyovu SportsExpected goals in this matchVision

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.78

Kiyovu Sports

1.61

Vision

0.78

Kiyovu Sports creates 106% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 15 away

1.42

creates per match

0.67

0.89

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Kiyovu Sports

1.42

Vision

0.67

allows per match

Kiyovu Sports

0.89

Vision

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kiyovu Sports+0.00on par

Vision+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kiyovu Sports ↓

Vision →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Kiyovu Sports or draw

82%

Kiyovu Sports or Vision

75%

Draw or Vision

43%

Winning margin

Kiyovu Sports wins by 2+

31%

Vision wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Kiyovu Sports 1+ goals

80%

Kiyovu Sports 2+ goals

48%

Kiyovu Sports 3+ goals

22%

Vision 1+ goals

54%

Vision 2+ goals

18%

Vision 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Kiyovu Sports (draw refunded)

76%

Vision (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kiyovu Sports at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.89 · 97 matches

Vision away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kiyovu Sports attack 1.42 + Vision defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.61

Vision attack 0.67 + Kiyovu Sports defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Kiyovu Sports scores more

57%

level

25%

Vision scores more

18%

Kiyovu Sports at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Kiyovu Sports will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff