Kiyovu Sports vs Rwamagana City — National Soccer League 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 45+ matches
Kiyovu Sports52%
Rwamagana City21%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Kiyovu Sports creates 81% more chances
Season form · 97 home / 45 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under62
- Over38
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No58
- Yes42
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Kiyovu Sports ↓
Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Kiyovu Sports at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.89 · 97 matches
Rwamagana City away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.44 · 45 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Kiyovu Sports attack 1.42 + Rwamagana City defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.43
Rwamagana City attack 0.69 + Kiyovu Sports defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.79
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 52%?"
Kiyovu Sports at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 52% does not mean "Kiyovu Sports will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
APR
Rayon Sports
Police
MukuraKiyovu Sports
AS Kigali
Sunrise
Bugesera
Gasogi United
Marines
Muhanga
Musanze
Etincelles
Espoir
Heroes
GicumbiIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Kiyovu Sports host Rwamagana City on Thursday, 1 May 2025 at 13:00. The match is part of the National Soccer League 2019/2020 season.
Match Recap: Kiyovu Sports vs Rwamagana City
Kiyovu Sports and Rwamagana City drew 2-2 in National Soccer League on May 1, 2025.
The match was played at Kigali Pelé Stadium in Kigali.