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Kiyovu Sports vs Marines — National Soccer League 2019

Kiyovu Sports
Kiyovu Sports
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Marines
Marines
3/10/2026National Soccer LeagueNational Soccer League · Group Stage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Kiyovu Sports51%
×Draw26%
Marines23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kiyovu Sports
1.49
Marines
0.89

Kiyovu Sports creates 67% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 95 away

creates per match

Kiyovu Sports
1.42
Marines
0.89

allows per match

Kiyovu Sports
0.89
Marines
1.56

finishing

Kiyovu Sports+0.00on par
Marines+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kiyovu Sports ↓

Marines →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Kiyovu Sports or draw
77%
Kiyovu Sports or Marines
74%
Draw or Marines
49%

Winning margin

Kiyovu Sports wins by 2+
26%
Marines wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Kiyovu Sports 1+ goals
77%
Kiyovu Sports 2+ goals
44%
Kiyovu Sports 3+ goals
19%
Marines 1+ goals
59%
Marines 2+ goals
22%
Marines 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Kiyovu Sports (draw refunded)
69%
Marines (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kiyovu Sports at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.89 · 97 matches

Marines away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.56 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kiyovu Sports attack 1.42 + Marines defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.49

Marines attack 0.89 + Kiyovu Sports defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Kiyovu Sports scores more
51%
level
26%
Marines scores more
23%

Kiyovu Sports at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Kiyovu Sports will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

National Soccer League: Kiyovu Sports 1–2 Marines

Marines beat Kiyovu Sports 2-1 in National Soccer League on March 10, 2026.