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Kiyovu Sports vs Etoile de l'Est — National Soccer League 2019

Kiyovu Sports
Kiyovu Sports
FT
6 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Etoile de l'Est
Etoile de l'Est
10/27/2023National Soccer LeagueNational Soccer League · Round 9Kigali Pelé Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Kiyovu Sports55%
×Draw26%
Etoile de l'Est19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kiyovu Sports
1.54
Etoile de l'Est
0.79

Kiyovu Sports creates 95% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 30 away

creates per match

Kiyovu Sports
1.42
Etoile de l'Est
0.70

allows per match

Kiyovu Sports
0.89
Etoile de l'Est
1.67

finishing

Kiyovu Sports+0.00on par
Etoile de l'Est+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kiyovu Sports ↓

Etoile de l'Est →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Kiyovu Sports or draw
81%
Kiyovu Sports or Etoile de l'Est
74%
Draw or Etoile de l'Est
45%

Winning margin

Kiyovu Sports wins by 2+
29%
Etoile de l'Est wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Kiyovu Sports 1+ goals
79%
Kiyovu Sports 2+ goals
45%
Kiyovu Sports 3+ goals
20%
Etoile de l'Est 1+ goals
55%
Etoile de l'Est 2+ goals
19%
Etoile de l'Est 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Kiyovu Sports (draw refunded)
74%
Etoile de l'Est (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kiyovu Sports at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.89 · 97 matches

Etoile de l'Est away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.67 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kiyovu Sports attack 1.42 + Etoile de l'Est defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.54

Etoile de l'Est attack 0.70 + Kiyovu Sports defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Kiyovu Sports scores more
55%
level
26%
Etoile de l'Est scores more
19%

Kiyovu Sports at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Kiyovu Sports will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

National Soccer League: Kiyovu Sports 6–1 Etoile de l'Est

Kiyovu Sports beat Etoile de l'Est 6-1 in National Soccer League on October 27, 2023.

The match was played at Kigali Pelé Stadium in Kigali.