Kiyovu Sports vs Etincelles — National Soccer League 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 96+ matches
Kiyovu Sports50%
Etincelles23%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Kiyovu Sports creates 61% more chances
Season form · 97 home / 96 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under57
- Over43
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No54
- Yes46
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Kiyovu Sports ↓
Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Kiyovu Sports at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.89 · 97 matches
Etincelles away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.55 · 96 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Kiyovu Sports attack 1.42 + Etincelles defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.48
Etincelles attack 0.95 + Kiyovu Sports defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.92
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 50%?"
Kiyovu Sports at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 50% does not mean "Kiyovu Sports will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Al Hilal Omdurman
APR
Al Merreikh
Rayon SportsKiyovu Sports
Police
Mukura
Marines
Bugesera
Musanze
Gorilla
GicumbiEtincelles
AS Kigali
Gasogi United
Amagaju
Muhanga
RutsiroIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Kiyovu Sports host Etincelles on Friday, 22 November 2024 at 13:00. The match is part of the National Soccer League 2019/2020 season.
National Soccer League: Kiyovu Sports 2–1 Etincelles
Kiyovu Sports beat Etincelles 2-1 in National Soccer League on November 22, 2024.
The match was played at Kigali Pelé Stadium in Kigali.