Kitzbühel 1–0 Seekirchen: Result & Stats

Kitzbühel

FT

1 – 0

Seekirchen

5/3/2019

Regionalliga - West · Round 25Sportplatz Langau (Kitzbühel)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Kitzbühel41%

×Draw24%

Seekirchen35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KitzbühelExpected goals in this matchSeekirchen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.52

Kitzbühel

1.65

Seekirchen

1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 31 away

1.55

creates per match

1.90

1.14

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Kitzbühel

1.55

Seekirchen

1.90

allows per match

Kitzbühel

1.14

Seekirchen

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kitzbühel+0.00on par

Seekirchen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kitzbühel ↓

Seekirchen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Kitzbühel or draw

65%

Kitzbühel or Seekirchen

76%

Draw or Seekirchen

59%

Winning margin

Kitzbühel wins by 2+

21%

Seekirchen wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Kitzbühel 1+ goals

81%

Kitzbühel 2+ goals

49%

Kitzbühel 3+ goals

23%

Seekirchen 1+ goals

78%

Seekirchen 2+ goals

45%

Seekirchen 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Kitzbühel (draw refunded)

54%

Seekirchen (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kitzbühel at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.14 · 49 matches

Seekirchen away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.74 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kitzbühel attack 1.55 + Seekirchen defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.65

Seekirchen attack 1.90 + Kitzbühel defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Kitzbühel scores more

41%

level

24%

Seekirchen scores more

35%

Kitzbühel at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Kitzbühel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff